Dirt-value floor for 8 Houston-metro hotels: if the hotel failed and the site sold as raw redevelopment land, what is the ground worth? Three models researched the same 8 parcels. A live appraisal-district pull settles the disagreements.
The hard floor under all 8 properties is the appraisal districts' own land assessment: $35.49M of dirt before a dollar of building value. The Mid and High cases apply each model's price-per-square-foot judgment to the true parcel size.
Ranked by absolute district land value. Low = district truth. Mid / High = consensus $/SF on the real parcel. $/key on the Low.
| Rank · Property | Keys | Land size | Low (district) | $/SF | $/key | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 DTG · DoubleTree GalleriaUptown / Galleria · REDUS DHG LLC | 476 | 3.36 ac | $14,622,400 | $100 | $30,719 | $18,570,000 | $22,030,000 |
| 2 HOURP · SHS Med Ctr / NRGTexas Medical Center · RODEO HOTELS LP | 190 | 2.81 ac | $7,335,540 | $60 | $38,608 | $9,414,000 | $11,615,000 |
| 3 DT IAH · DoubleTree AirportGeorge Bush IAH corridor · IAH 15747 HOTEL LLC | 313 | 7.30 ac | $4,769,820 | $15 | $15,239 | $6,360,000 | $8,270,000 |
| 4 HOUZN · SHS NorthwestSH 249 / Vintage · HOWDY HOTELS LP | 139 | 7.53 ac* | $2,164,160 | $18 | $15,569 | $2,276,000 | $2,795,000 |
| 5 HP SL · Hyatt Place Sugar LandLake Pointe / Town Square · Monarch Sugar Land LP | 214 | 3.69 ac | $1,824,975 | $11.35 | $8,528 | $3,697,000 | $4,580,000 |
| 6 Element · Vintage ParkVintage Park (partial AE flood) · Vintage Harris Hospitality LP | 123 | 2.70 ac | $1,762,875 | $15 | $14,332 | $2,351,000 | $2,899,000 |
| 7 HOUUS · HIEX WestchaseWestchase / Westheimer · HI HOTELS LP | 127 | 1.11 ac | $1,743,480 | $36 | $13,728 | $1,986,000 | $2,326,000 |
| 8 SHS SL · SpringHill Sugar LandUS 59 frontage · Motels of Sugar Land LLP | 94 | 2.00 ac | $1,262,753 | $14.50 | $13,434 | $1,741,000 | $2,090,000 |
| Portfolio · 8 parcels | 1,676 | 30.5 ac | $35,486,003 | — | $21,173 | $46,394,000 | $57,699,000 |
* HOUZN is 7.53 ac on paper but only ~119,790 SF is usable upland (valued $15/SF). The rest is floodway (109,815 SF @ $3.30/SF) and drainage easement (98,402 SF @ $0.05/SF), which is why its blended district basis is only $6.60/SF and the dirt floor is weaker than the headline acreage suggests. Source: HCAD account 1336790010002 land detail.
DTG land size is triangulated. The 3.36 ac is confirmed by three independent sources within 0.04%: the ALTA/ACSM Land Title Survey (Reserve "C", 146,170 SF), HCAD parcel 1168840000003 (146,224 SF), and the OM v5.23 land size (146,224 SF). Flag: the survey covers a gross 3.7085 ac as Reserves "C" and "D"; HCAD taxes only Reserve C. A second reserve of ~15,400 SF (~0.35 ac, up to ~$1.5M at $100/SF) may convey but is not in the taxed parcel and may be a detention/easement strip. Confirm with the broker whether Reserve D conveys and is buildable.
Every model agreed on the 5 Harris parcels that resolve from indexed public records. They split on the 3 that need a live parcel lookup (HOUZN and both Sugar Lands) plus 2 where Gemini guessed the lot size wrong. The live district pull is the referee.
| Property | District truth | Claude | ChatGPT | Gemini | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOURP | $7,335,540 | $7,335,540 | $7,335,540 | $7,335,540 | all matched |
| DT IAH | $4,769,820 | $4,769,820 | $4,769,820 | $4,769,820 | all matched |
| Element | $1,762,875 | $1,762,875 | $1,762,875 | $1,762,875 | all matched |
| HOUUS | $1,743,480 | $1,743,480 | $1,743,480 | $1,500,000* | Gemini low 14% |
| DTG | $14,622,400 | $14,622,400 | $14,622,400 | $8,712,000* | Gemini 2.0 ac error survey-confirmed 3.36 ac |
| HOUZN | $2,164,160 | $2,164,160 | $4,590,000* | $1,200,000* | GPT high 112% Gemini low 45% |
| SHS SL | $1,262,753 | $1,262,753 | $1,220,000* | $1,500,000* | both close |
| HP SL | $1,824,975 | $1,824,975 | $1,130,000* | $2,500,000* | GPT low Gemini high |
* = the model marked this an estimate. Claude's column is the live HCAD/FBCAD pull, so it equals district truth by construction. The headline lesson: the appraisal-district LAND line cannot be reliably web-scraped, so for the 3 parcels behind live-lookup forms, the frontier models' "Low" numbers swung from -45% to +112% off the real figure.
The models' dollar totals diverge mostly because they multiplied their $/SF by different (often wrong) acreage. Run each model's Mid $/SF through the real parcel and the judgment converges. Gemini reads more bullish on price per foot; its low dollar totals were acreage errors, not cheaper opinions.
| Property | True SF | Claude $/SF | GPT $/SF | Gemini $/SF | Mid on true parcel (low–high) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTG | 146,224 | $115 | $115 | $150 | $16.82M – $21.93M |
| HOURP | 122,259 | $70 | $70 | $90 | $8.56M – $11.00M |
| DT IAH | 317,988 | $18 | $18 | $25 | $5.72M – $7.95M |
| HP SL | 160,728 | $15 | $18 | $35 | $2.41M – $5.63M |
| HOUUS | 48,430 | $42 | $42 | $40 | $1.94M – $2.03M |
| Element | 117,525 | $18 | $18 | $25 | $2.12M – $2.94M |
| SHS SL | 87,068 | $17 | $17 | $25 | $1.48M – $2.18M |
| HOUZN (upland) | 119,790 | $18 | $18 | $20 | $2.16M – $2.40M |
DTG is the clearest case: Gemini's own $150/SF is its most bullish call, but it reported only $13.1M because it used 2.0 ac. On the true 3.36 ac that same $150/SF is $21.9M. Same opinion, right parcel, very different number.
DTG $14.6M of Uptown/Galleria dirt at $100/SF is the most liquid, most redevelopable ground in the set, before any credit for the 476-key high-rise. All three models agree this is the floor leader.
HOURP has the best per-key floor at $38,608/key. Texas Medical Center land is firming hard: a 2.1-acre tract one block away at 1500 Old Spanish Trail traded in May 2025 for a 280-unit apartment project, phase one of a 21.3-acre master plan (Transwestern, The Real Deal). Multifamily / medical HBU is real.
HP SL at $8,528/key is the thinnest floor: $1.82M of land spread over 214 keys. The dirt is fine; there is just a lot of building on top of it.
HOUZN looks large at 7.53 ac but two-thirds is floodway and drainage easement. Both frontier models missed this and over- or under-shot. The usable dirt is ~2.75 ac, so the real floor is ~$2.2M, not the $4.6M one model assumed.